With 10 days until Election Day, two new major national polls indicate Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump are in a dead heat in the race to succeed President Biden in the White House.
With the clock quickly ticking, the two nominees and their running mates are fanning out across the key battleground states this weekend.
On the trail
Trump starts Saturday with a rally in Novi, Michigan, in suburban Detroit. Later in the day, he’ll campaign in another of the crucial swing states — Pennsylvania — as he holds a rally in State College, home to Penn State University.
Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, the Republican vice presidential nominee, starts his day in Atlanta before holding campaign events in Erie and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.
Top Trump surrogates Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who ended his long-shot White House run and endorsed Trump, and former Democratic presidential candidate and former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, who days ago switched from an independent to a Republican, will team up for Trump in swing state North Carolina. And Elon Musk, the Tesla and Space X magnate who’s the world’s richest person, stumps for Trump in Pennsylvania.
Harris on Saturday will team up with former first lady Michelle Obama, arguably the most popular Democrat in the country, at a get-out-the-vote rally in Kalamazoo, Michigan. The stop comes two days after the vice president shared the stage in suburban Atlanta with former President Obama.
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the Democratic vice presidential nominee, makes two stops in battleground Arizona Saturday, first in Window Rock and later in Phoenix.
In a sign of just how important a role Pennsylvania is playing with its 19 electoral votes up for grabs, first lady Jill Biden campaigns for Harris in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, while progressive champion Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, a two-time runner-up for the Democratic nomination, stumps for Harris in Erie.
On Sunday, Harris is scheduled to make multiple retail stops in Philadelphia. Trump will hold a rally at Madison Square Garden in New York City, the media capital of the world.
Trump’s campaign says the former president, who has long wanted to hold a rally in the legendary New York City venue, will frame his closing argument during the rally. And the campaign will hold a backstage fundraiser for major donors with top-tier access costing $924,600.
Poll position
It can’t get any closer than this.
Two major national polls conducted Sunday through Wednesday and released Friday indicate Harris and Trump in a dead heat.
Grabbing headlines first is a New York Times/Siena College survey indicating the Democratic Party and GOP presidential nominees are tied at 48%.
That’s a switch from a previous poll, earlier this month, when Harris held a slight three-point edge.
A CNN survey had the candidates deadlocked at 47% among likely voters nationwide. Its previous poll from late September indicated the vice president had a razor-thin one-point margin.
There were warning signs in the two surveys for both candidates, however.
Harris lost her favorability advantage over Trump in both polls.
After replacing President Biden atop the Democrats’ 2024 ticket in July, the vice president’s favorable ratings soared. But they’ve steadily eroded over the past month.
Another red flag for Harris are polls indicating her support among Black voters is below Biden’s levels in the 2020 election.
For Trump, his support among White voters is on par with his standing in the 2020 election, when he lost the White House to Biden.
And the former president still faces a healthy deficit to the vice president when it comes to being trustworthy and caring about people.
While national polls are closely watched, the race for the White House is not based on the national popular vote. It’s a battle for the states and their electoral votes.
And the latest surveys in the seven crucial battleground states whose razor-thin margins decided Biden’s 2020 victory over Trump and will likely determine whether Harris or Trump wins the 2024 election, are mostly within the margin of error.
The latest Fox News national poll indicated Trump had a two-point edge, but Harris had a 6-point advantage among respondents questioned in all seven battleground states.
Cash dash
While there’s a margin of error in the polls, there is a clear frontrunner in the battle for campaign cash, another important indicator in presidential politics. And it’s Harris.
According to the latest figures the two major party presidential campaigns filed with the Federal Election Commission, Harris hauled in $97 million during the first half of October.
That far outpaced the $16 million the Trump campaign said it raised during the first half of this month.
Both campaigns use a number of affiliated fundraisings committees to raise money. And when those are included, Trump narrowed the gap, but trailed $176 million to $97 million during the first two weeks of this month.
The new filings also spotlight that the Harris campaign continues to vastly outspend the Trump campaign.
During the first 16 days of October, the Democratic presidential nominee’s campaign outspent Trump $166 million to $99 million, with paid media the top expenditure for both campaigns.
However, Harris finished the reporting period with more cash in her coffers. As of Oct. 16, she had $119 million cash on hand, while Trump had $36 million. When joint fundraising committees are also included, Harris holds a $240 million to $168 million cash-on-hand advantage.
